Casa de Bolsa Finamex: Inflation Forecast, Electricity prices driving biweekly inflation down

Ciudad de México, 16 de abril de 2019

Inflation Forecast

1H April 2019

Inflation Forecast: Electricity prices driving biweekly inflation down.

According to our price monitor, we expect 1H April 2019 headline inflation at -0.24%, with the core and non-core components at 0.20% and -1.52%, respectively.

Within the non-core component, a decrease in Energy prices (-0.31) –mainly due to seasonal effects that push down Electricity prices– stands out. Lower gasoline prices also contribute to some extent to this reduction.

Within the core component, Other services prices (0.06) mildly compensate the aforementioned decline (see Chart 1).

However, a low base-effect takes 1H April 2019 y/y headline inflation forecast up 11 basis points, from 4.06% to 4.17%.

By the same token, y/y core inflation increases 13 basis points from 3.60% to 3.73%, while y/y non-core inflation increases 1 basis point from 5.54% to 5.55%.

Casa de Bolsa Finamex – Mexico_ Inflation Forecast 1H April 2019.pdf
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Pamela Delgadillo, ejecutiva de cuenta, México, Bcw burson cohn & wolfeo: + 52.55.5351.6500 Ext. 6625 m: +52.1.551452.0142, Nombrada agencia del año 2018 por the holmes report

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