Casa de Bolsa Finamex- Inflation Forecast: Energy prices keeping inflation from going down in 2H February 2019

Ciudad de México, marzo de 2019.

Inflation Forecast

2H February 2019

Inflation Forecast: Energy prices keeping inflation from going down in 2H February 2019

According to our price monitor, we expect 2H February 2019 headline inflation at 0.14%, with the core and non-core components at 0.14% and 0.12%, respectively. The positive contribution of Energy (0.17), driven by a significant increase in Gasoline prices, more than compensates a further decrease in Fruit and vegetables (-0.14) (see Chart 1).

As a result, 2H February 2019 y/y headline inflation forecast adjusts up 10 basis points, from 3.89% to 3.99%, while y/y core and non-core inflation forecasts increase 1 and 35 basis points, from 3.51% to 3.52% and from 5.15% to 5.50%, respectively.

These numbers, together with 1H February readings, implies a February 2019 annual inflation forecast at 3.94% –finally lying within Banxico’s +/- 1% variability interval around its 3% target–, with core and non-core annual forecasts at 3.51% and 5.32%, respectively.

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Pamela Delgadillo, ejecutiva de cuenta, méxico Bcw burson cohn & wolfeo: + 52.55.5351.6500 Ext 6625, m: +52.1.551452.0142 www.bcw-global.com nombrada agencia del año 2018 por the holmes report

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